Recent polling indicates that former President Donald Trump maintains a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas. An Emerson College-The Hill-Nexstar Media poll shows Trump ahead with 50.9% of the vote compared to Harris's 45.6%. This reflects a consistent trend in recent surveys, with Trump enjoying a slight edge in overall favorability as well.
According to the poll, Trump's favorability rating is nearly even, with 50.1% of respondents viewing him positively, while 49.9% hold an unfavorable view. In contrast, Harris has a higher unfavorable rating, with 53.6% of voters in Texas expressing negative sentiments toward her, compared to 46.4% who view her favorably.
Both candidates are focusing on critical battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, while Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has shown signs of becoming more competitive for Democrats. Second gentleman Doug Emhoff recently participated in campaign events across Texas, although neither Trump nor Harris has held major rallies in the state during this election cycle.
In the 2016 election, Trump won Texas by a margin of 52.2% to 43.2%, and his victory margin shrank slightly in 2020 to 52.1% to 46.5%. Current averages from RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris by 50% to 44.8%. The Cook Political Report has categorized the Texas presidential race as "likely Republican."
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