Trump and Harris locked in tight race in three crucial swing states

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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a closely contested race in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, as revealed by three recent polls conducted by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The surveys show Trump with a slim lead of 1 point in both Arizona and Georgia, while the two candidates are tied in North Carolina.

In North Carolina, both Trump and Harris are at 49% among likely voters, with independents also evenly matched at 48% each. This marks a slight underperformance for Harris, as President Joe Biden had won independents by a margin of 4 points in 2020, and Trump had previously secured the state. Among black likely voters, Harris captured 86% compared to Biden’s 92%. However, she performed slightly better than Biden among white voters, although Trump still maintains a lead of 59% to 40%. Notably, Harris has gained support among the Silent/Greatest Generation, traditionally a Republican stronghold, with 52% backing her versus Trump’s 43%. The poll surveyed 1,348 likely voters in North Carolina from September 19 to 24, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points.

In Arizona, Trump holds a narrow lead at 50% compared to Harris’s 49%. Among independents, Harris has a slight edge, winning 51% to Trump’s 47%. Demographic divisions in Arizona are less pronounced compared to Georgia and North Carolina, with Trump leading among white voters by just 3 points (51% to 48%) and the large Latino voting bloc by 51% to 49%. This reflects a significant shift from the 2020 election, when Biden won the Latino vote by a margin of 24 points. The Arizona poll included 1,264 voters surveyed from September 19 to 24, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points.

In Georgia, Trump also has a narrow advantage, claiming 50% of likely voters to Harris’s 49%. Among independents, Harris leads by 5 points. Trump shows strong support among white voters, leading 66% to 34%, while Harris has substantial backing from black voters at 86% compared to Trump’s 13%. The gender divide is notable, with men favoring Trump at 56% to 42%, while women support Harris 54% to 44%. The Georgia poll surveyed 1,220 likely voters from September 19 to 24, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points.