As Labor Day marks a crucial point in the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over Donald Trump in the national polls. However, due to the Republicans' advantage in the Electoral College, the race remains highly competitive, with Trump well within striking distance.
In the seven key battleground states, Harris leads in three—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—though by slim margins. These states, crucial to victory, have historically underestimated Trump in polls, as seen in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Trump leads narrowly in North Carolina, while Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada remain tightly contested, with varying leaders depending on the poll.
The outcome of this election could hinge on a few thousand votes in these critical states. While Harris's lead in the Rust Belt would secure her the presidency if she also wins traditionally blue states, Trump's strength in the Sun Belt, where the candidates are nearly tied, suggests the race is far from decided.
Historically, Trump has often been underestimated by polls, particularly in these pivotal states, which adds uncertainty to the current numbers. As the election draws nearer, both campaigns will focus intensely on these battlegrounds, knowing that a slight shift in voter sentiment could determine the next president.