Swing-state scorecard: analyzing Kamala Harris’s battleground states post-debate

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The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains closely contested following their recent debate. A new poll from the New York Times-Philadelphia Inquirer-Siena College indicates that Harris is currently leading Trump in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state. Several national polls show the candidates either tied or Harris with a slight edge, indicating a competitive election environment.

As early voting begins in select states, the Washington Examiner has ranked battleground states according to the challenges Harris may face in securing wins.

Pennsylvania: Despite polls showing Harris ahead by a narrow margin, the state is regarded as unpredictable. The New York Times poll shows Harris leading 50% to 46%, while a Quinnipiac poll indicates a 51% to 45% lead. However, the Washington Post highlights a near tie at 48% to 47%.

Georgia: This state has moved up in the rankings as Trump retains a lead. A RealClearPolitics poll average shows Trump at 48% compared to Harris's 46.3%. In a recent Emerson College poll, Trump leads 50% to 47%. Harris campaigned in Atlanta, discussing the impact of restrictive abortion laws on women.

Arizona: Trump has consistently led Harris in various polls. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump at 48.4% to Harris's 46.8%. An Emerson College poll also places Trump ahead, but indicates a slight gain for Harris.

North Carolina: Traditionally challenging for Democrats, North Carolina's race may shift due to recent controversies involving Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Harris's campaign has initiated ads linking Trump to Robinson, who has faced scrutiny over past comments and associations.

Nevada: Harris holds a slight edge over Trump by 0.2%, as indicated by RealClearPolitics. Both candidates are tied at 48% in an Emerson College poll. Harris’s campaign has launched a $3 million Spanish-language ad buy aimed at engaging Latino voters.

Wisconsin: Once ranked higher, Wisconsin is now sixth in difficulty for Harris, as her lead in Michigan has strengthened. Harris leads Trump by 1 point in Wisconsin, with polling indicating a 48% to 47% split.

Michigan: Harris has her strongest average lead here at 1.7%. Polls indicate she leads Trump by 5 points according to Quinnipiac. Harris continues to engage with voters in Michigan, recently hosting a virtual event featuring high-profile guests.

As the election approaches, the dynamics of these battleground states will be crucial in determining the outcome of the presidential race.