Russia’s war escalation raises questions about the fate of the Kerch Bridge and Crimea

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As the Russia-Ukraine conflict endures, focus has returned to Crimea and the strategic Kerch Bridge. This 19-km bridge, Russia’s sole physical link to Crimea, has been crucial for Russian military supplies in southern Ukraine since the 2022 invasion.

General Ben Hodges, former US commander in Europe, predicts Ukraine could mount a significant effort to reclaim Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. He believes Ukraine will destroy the Kerch Bridge this year, severing a key Russian supply route.

Ukraine has already weakened Russia's military presence in Crimea through drone and missile strikes on naval bases and airfields, forcing the relocation of much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The Kerch Bridge, which was partially destroyed by a truck bomb in 2022, has since been damaged by Ukrainian drones. Ukraine has also targeted Russian ferries in the Kerch Strait, intensifying pressure on Russian forces.

Russia has bolstered defenses around the bridge, sinking ships near its span and deploying air defenses. Hodges notes that any successful strike on the bridge would require significant planning and coordination, suggesting it could be a multi-phase operation aimed for maximum impact.

Colonel Demetries Grimes, a US special forces commander, suggested Ukraine might delay an assault on the bridge to allow Russian forces a path to retreat. Grimes argues that the sight of Russian civilians fleeing Crimea would be a psychological blow to Russia.

The political ramifications of an attack on the Kerch Bridge are considerable, particularly with the upcoming US presidential election. Some US politicians, including Republican candidate Donald Trump, oppose continued military aid to Ukraine. A successful Ukrainian recapture of Crimea could bolster its standing in future negotiations.

While not all experts agree on the timing or likelihood of a Ukrainian offensive, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains firm in his goal to reclaim Crimea. At the Crimea Platform summit, Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine’s commitment to restoring Crimea, with support from European leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, who affirmed that Crimea and Sevastopol belong to Ukraine.