German exports at risk if Donald Trump wins 2024 US election, says economic institute

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A report by the Munich-based ifo economic institute warns that a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 US presidential election could significantly impact German exports. The analysis, conducted in collaboration with Econpol Europe, suggests that German exports to the US may drop by nearly 15%, with the automotive and pharmaceutical industries potentially experiencing a one-third decline.

The report also highlights concerns over a potential new trade war between the US and China, following Trump's proposed tariffs. Trump has announced a 60% tariff on US imports from China and a 20% tariff on goods from other countries. This move would make German products much more expensive in the US, further straining trade relations.

According to ifo trade expert Lisandra Flach, a renewed US-China trade war would heavily affect Germany, a country reliant on exports. The potential fallout could also reduce German exports to China by around 10%. The experts caution that the estimates do not include potential retaliatory measures by China, which could exacerbate the situation for Germany.

The 2024 US presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 5, and the outcome could have far-reaching implications for global trade.