Five key House races shift as 2024 general election approaches

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As the 2024 election nears, five competitive House races have shifted, with three favoring Democrats and two moving toward Republicans. Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated its ratings, impacting seats held by Reps. Mary Peltola (D-AK), Michelle Steel (R-CA), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), and an open seat in California’s 47th District.

Peltola’s seat moved from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up” in Alaska, where she faces Republican Nick Begich in a ranked-choice election. Lawler’s seat in New York shifted from “toss-up” to “leans Republican” as the GOP seeks to strengthen its position in a district that voted for President Biden in 2020.

Steel’s race in California, another Biden-won district, moved from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.” Meanwhile, Van Orden’s Wisconsin seat shifted from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” as polling shows a close race with Democrat Rebecca Cooke. In California’s 47th District, the open race between Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh now “leans Democratic.”

Control of the House could come down to key seats in California and New York, with analysts projecting a closely contested outcome.