Democrats lead in key swing-state senate races, outperforming vice president Harris: poll

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A new poll from the Cook Political Report shows Democratic candidates in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina outperforming Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll, conducted between September 19-25, suggests potential split-ticket voting on Election Day.

In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican challenger Kari Lake by 13 points, with 54% of the vote compared to Lake’s 41%. Gallego has gained 4 points since the last poll in August, partially due to his support from 13% of Republicans and a 29-point lead among independents.

Meanwhile, in Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen holds a 13-point advantage over Republican Sam Brown, with 53% of the vote to Brown’s 40%. Though her lead has decreased by 5 points since August, Rosen remains ahead, benefiting from her appeal to 15% of Republicans and an abortion-focused message resonating with key women voters. Harris, on the other hand, is leading Trump in Nevada by just 1 point.

In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leads Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson by 24 points in the governor’s race. The poll also shows Harris and Trump tied at 49% in the state, mirroring a trend of tight competition in key swing states.

The poll surveyed 2,867 likely voters across seven battleground states, with a margin of error ranging from 4.5 to 4.9 percentage points.