Can Virginia swing back to Republican support in 2024?

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The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Virginia was in 2004, when George W. Bush secured the state during his reelection campaign. At that time, the memory of the 9/11 attacks was still fresh, and Republicans had maintained a 40-year winning streak in presidential elections within the commonwealth. However, since then, Virginia has shifted politically, with Democrats dominating statewide elections, beginning with Barack Obama's victory in 2008.

In recent years, the Democratic Party has maintained a stronghold, winning consistently in both gubernatorial and federal races. This trend continued with Joe Biden’s decisive victory in 2020, where he won Virginia by a 10-point margin, the largest for a Democratic candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.

As the 2024 elections approach, the Trump campaign, alongside the Senate bid of Navy veteran Hung Cao, seeks to change this trend. The Republican Party has seen success in local races, particularly during the 2021 gubernatorial election when Glenn Youngkin won, marking the first Republican governorship since 2009. Youngkin's strategy involved addressing voter margins, particularly in suburban areas that are crucial for both parties.

Youngkin’s approach included mobilizing Republican voters early, reducing the usual Democratic lead before Election Day. His political action committee, Spirit of Virginia, emphasized that treating the 45-day early voting period as critical was key to their success, contributing to a reduced Election Day deficit compared to previous elections.

Despite these recent successes, the challenge remains for Republicans to win a federal election in Virginia. The Trump campaign has expanded its presence, with 19 field offices and a significant number of volunteers. Campaign spokesperson Jeff Ryer highlighted the robust grassroots support, noting a strong presence of campaign materials throughout the state.

Political strategist Zack Roday remarked on the professionalism of the Trump campaign compared to earlier years, suggesting it has a solid chance of competing effectively. However, recent polling indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a lead in Virginia, with some polls showing her up by as much as 8 points.

While the Republican Party aims to reclaim Virginia as a competitive battleground, the odds are challenging. As the campaign unfolds, both parties are aware that the results will ultimately depend on voter turnout and engagement. With 2024 marking a significant moment for the GOP in Virginia, the potential for a shift remains, though the final outcome will only be clear on election night.